Filibuster Unlikely

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There's rumors that Kerry is trying to organize a filibuster of Alito. It's very unlikely.

A filibuster can be ended with 60 votes. So the Democrats need 41. Right now, they have at most 41 No votes on Alito (44 Democrats, one Independent, minus three Democrats who have said they will vote Yes, and one more who said she will oppose a filibuster).

And even if they get 41 No votes, it's still likely that at least one of the four remaining Democrats in the "Gang of 14" (or another Democrat) will oppose a filibuster. All that's needed is one to stand up and say Alito is not extreme.

If they do filibuster, though, the public will see right through it, and side with the Republicans this time, and they will push through the "nuclear option." And Alito will be on the Supreme Court.

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