In case I wasn't clear in my last post: since the Great Depression, no President except for Ronald…

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In case I wasn't clear in my last post: since the Great Depression, no President except for Ronald Reagan was followed by a President of his own party (except by death or resignation: FDR, JFK, and Nixon).

The reasons are obvious: people get tired of the party in power.  That's why Presidents, if they stay in office long enough -- Reagan, Clinton, Bush, Obama -- have a Congress run by the opposing party.  And when it comes time to replace the President, it's hard to get the people to pick a President of the same party.

Reagan was popular enough (above 50% through 1988) that Bush was able to pull it off. But Obama is significantly more unpopular.

The safe bet really is that the Republicans will win the presidential election, regardless of who the candidates are.  Of course, exceptionally good or bad candidates could throw this off, as could a drastic increase in Obama's popularity 18 months from now, so I'm not making a prediction here.  I'm just saying what's most likely. G+

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<pudge/*> (pronounced "PudgeGlob") is thousands of posts over many years by Pudge.

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This page contains a single entry by pudge published on January 19, 2015 10:37 PM.

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