Matt Bai made the point on #MTP that we treat candidates like they are game show contestants to be ...
Matt Bai made the point on #MTP that we treat candidates like they are game show contestants to be voted on or off.
I hadn't thought of this before, but -- combined with the foolish notion that poll numbers represent how people are going to vote in the primaries -- it might help explain why so many people believe that candidates with the lowest poll numbers should just "drop out."
In late 2007, everyone knew Hillary would be the nominee. Rudy was the "frontrunner" for the GOP nomination. It's the same story every year: the polls are more often wrong as a predictor, than right. It's because they are not intended to be a predictor. And if they are intended to be a predictor, they shouldn't be, because they cannot be: people "vote" in them differently than they vote in the primaries, both because they are meaningless, and because they change their minds.
I suspect lots of people "vote" for Trump in polls because they either think he's entertaining, because he's the only name they know, or because they want to damage Republican chances. None of those people are likely to also vote for him in the primaries.
But even if they were, it's still the fact that this is not a race to win a poll, it's a race to win dozens of primaries, so no one should drop out unless they have no chance to win those primaries, and lots of things change between now and the primaries. It's like telling the Seahawks they should drop out of the NFL season because they are too far behind to win the Super Bowl. It's nonsense.
I hadn't thought of this before, but -- combined with the foolish notion that poll numbers represent how people are going to vote in the primaries -- it might help explain why so many people believe that candidates with the lowest poll numbers should just "drop out."
In late 2007, everyone knew Hillary would be the nominee. Rudy was the "frontrunner" for the GOP nomination. It's the same story every year: the polls are more often wrong as a predictor, than right. It's because they are not intended to be a predictor. And if they are intended to be a predictor, they shouldn't be, because they cannot be: people "vote" in them differently than they vote in the primaries, both because they are meaningless, and because they change their minds.
I suspect lots of people "vote" for Trump in polls because they either think he's entertaining, because he's the only name they know, or because they want to damage Republican chances. None of those people are likely to also vote for him in the primaries.
But even if they were, it's still the fact that this is not a race to win a poll, it's a race to win dozens of primaries, so no one should drop out unless they have no chance to win those primaries, and lots of things change between now and the primaries. It's like telling the Seahawks they should drop out of the NFL season because they are too far behind to win the Super Bowl. It's nonsense.
"It is the common fate of the indolent to see their rights become a prey to the active. The condition upon which God hath given liberty to man is eternal vigilance; which condition if he break, servitude is at once the consequence of his crime and the punishment of his guilt."
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