Electoral Polls
I was gone much of last week, will be gone some of next week. It's that summer thang. I may post things as they occur to me, if they are interesting enough, but very little is interesting to me right now.
However, Electoral Vote Predictor 2004 is quite interesting to me. I was looking for this, and Murr provided it. It's by a Bush-hater apparently, but his methodology seems sound. He collects latest polls from across the country and takes the most recent major poll from each state and puts the results up, categorizing them as strongly for a candidate (>= 10%), weakly for a candidate (5-9%), or barely for a candidate (5%).
These numbers are the most important, not the big numbers at the top, which proclaim Kerry is ahead 328-210, because most of the barelys are well within the margin of error, and are essentially statistical ties. Throwing those out, you get Kerry 231 - 199, with 108 tossups. Of course, the weak ones are still subject to change too, which is why this is updated regularly.
However, Electoral Vote Predictor 2004 is quite interesting to me. I was looking for this, and Murr provided it. It's by a Bush-hater apparently, but his methodology seems sound. He collects latest polls from across the country and takes the most recent major poll from each state and puts the results up, categorizing them as strongly for a candidate (>= 10%), weakly for a candidate (5-9%), or barely for a candidate (5%).
These numbers are the most important, not the big numbers at the top, which proclaim Kerry is ahead 328-210, because most of the barelys are well within the margin of error, and are essentially statistical ties. Throwing those out, you get Kerry 231 - 199, with 108 tossups. Of course, the weak ones are still subject to change too, which is why this is updated regularly.
"It is the common fate of the indolent to see their rights become a prey to the active. The condition upon which God hath given liberty to man is eternal vigilance; which condition if he break, servitude is at once the consequence of his crime and the punishment of his guilt."
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