Undecideds
People keep saying undecideds usually break for the incumbent. Perhaps that's technically true, but there's a few things to keep in mind:
Just some random thoughts in my noggin' ... it will be interesting to see the results of polls vs actual results.
- In 2000, while Gore was not the incumbent, he represented incumbency to most people, to a large degree, and undecideds broke to him (Bush led by about 4% in polls, going into election day, and Gore had more votes nationwide by 0.5%).
- We usually have a lot more undecideds, and the number by which undecideds break for the incumbent (about 2/3 to 3/4) is the approximate number undecideds are fewer now than in 2000 (was 7% in 2000, is 3% now).
- One of the major reasons undecideds break for the challenger is because people decide that they just want change (this is probably why they broke for Gore in 2000, because the felt we did NOT need change), but security concerns changes all that math.
- We have less reason to grant credibility to the polls this year than any year before, anyway.
Just some random thoughts in my noggin' ... it will be interesting to see the results of polls vs actual results.
"It is the common fate of the indolent to see their rights become a prey to the active. The condition upon which God hath given liberty to man is eternal vigilance; which condition if he break, servitude is at once the consequence of his crime and the punishment of his guilt."
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