John Koster Owns 1st CD Poll

The funny part about the SurveyUSA/KING5 poll of voters in the newly redrawn Washington's First Congressional District is not that Republican John Koster is winning with 46 percent; it's not that the five Democats crack just 34 percent combined; it's not that the numbers don't change much in any of the head-to-head matchup; it's not that party favorite Susan DelBene at 4 percent is way behind Darcy Burner at 19 percent, or that DelBene's behind 17 points head-to-head with Koster, whereas Burner's down only 9 percent.

No, the funny part to me is that the candidate who just might have the best chance against Koster is moderate, "roadkill Democrat," Steve Hobbs. His margin is actually better than DelBene's and Laura Rudeman's, because while he is more unknown and got fewer votes than them head to head (with a larger undecided pool), he also cut into Koster's vote more than any of the others.

This is a district that has 50% selecting a no-name Republican (22% undecided), 45% picking Romney over 44% Obama, and 52% McKenna over 38% Inslee. If a candidate with such massive popularity among leftists like Darcy Burner is to win the election, she has to tack way to the middle, and I just don't think she can do it. Hobbs is the only one of the five, I think, with a realistic shot at it.

Of course, this is a brand new district, and it is well within the realm of possibility that the numbers are completely off. We'll see what future polls, and then the primary, look like. But if these numbers hold up -- especially if Hobbs doesn't win the nomination -- it's nearly impossible to see how Washington state doesn't become a split delegation of five Democrats and five Republicans to the House next year.

The odds of a Republican governor winning the state this year are excellent, and the Senate delegation could split, too.

I don't think Obama is sweating the election of the presidential electors in this state, though.