I've said from the beginning that Trump won't win, because he wouldn't win a majority of the delegates...
I've said from the beginning that Trump won't win, because he wouldn't win a majority of the delegates before convention, and if he didn't do that, he wouldn't be able to win it at convention either.
(Actually, I said Trump "can't" win, but since that's a position that's causes unnecessarily silly arguments, I've usually framed it as "won't" win.)
I wasn't right about everything. Early on I said he would probably have a ceiling of about 30%, and it went up to 40% in some states, and occasionally over 50%. But my basic analysis has held: he would not get reasonably close to a majority of the votes in the proportional states, so he'd need almost all of the winner-take-all states. And I said he wouldn't do that, so therefore, he wouldn't win the nomination, because if it went to convention, the delegates would flee on the second ballot.
Not too many people have agreed with me. Indeed, for most of February and March, people have said I'm crazy for saying Trump won't just win the nomination outright, and crazier still for saying that Trump wouldn't just be given the nomination if he got close.
But the tide of opinion is starting to turn back to where I've been since last fall. This is a good piece by Nate Silver that gets into more of the details of how Trump won't win at convention.
(Actually, I said Trump "can't" win, but since that's a position that's causes unnecessarily silly arguments, I've usually framed it as "won't" win.)
I wasn't right about everything. Early on I said he would probably have a ceiling of about 30%, and it went up to 40% in some states, and occasionally over 50%. But my basic analysis has held: he would not get reasonably close to a majority of the votes in the proportional states, so he'd need almost all of the winner-take-all states. And I said he wouldn't do that, so therefore, he wouldn't win the nomination, because if it went to convention, the delegates would flee on the second ballot.
Not too many people have agreed with me. Indeed, for most of February and March, people have said I'm crazy for saying Trump won't just win the nomination outright, and crazier still for saying that Trump wouldn't just be given the nomination if he got close.
But the tide of opinion is starting to turn back to where I've been since last fall. This is a good piece by Nate Silver that gets into more of the details of how Trump won't win at convention.
"It is the common fate of the indolent to see their rights become a prey to the active. The condition upon which God hath given liberty to man is eternal vigilance; which condition if he break, servitude is at once the consequence of his crime and the punishment of his guilt."
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