This page is a good reference for the likelihood of Trump getting a majority of the delegates. Basically...
This page is a good reference for the likelihood of Trump getting a majority of the delegates. Basically, 538 has targets they think the candidate needs to hit in order to get a majority of the delegates, and Trump's been slightly behind those targets for most of the race, and has been falling behind more with almost every race. Obviously he got closer to his target with NY's primary, but he's still well behind.
The biggest day left, other than the final day on June 7, is this Tuesday. Trump has a high chance of getting the most votes in the contests, but he has to win 56% of the delegates to hit his 538 "target" for the day ... and needs 83% (143 of 172) to get back on track to a majority overall.
There's almost no chance he can get the nomination with committed delegates. He needs the unbound delegates, probably at least 1/3 of them. And the unbound delegates are usually people who work in the party, who tend to hate Trump. Since Trump has been getting only about 1/3 of the popular vote, and the popular vote tends to support him more than the "insiders" do, it seems unlikely he'll get that much of the unbound delegates.
The biggest day left, other than the final day on June 7, is this Tuesday. Trump has a high chance of getting the most votes in the contests, but he has to win 56% of the delegates to hit his 538 "target" for the day ... and needs 83% (143 of 172) to get back on track to a majority overall.
There's almost no chance he can get the nomination with committed delegates. He needs the unbound delegates, probably at least 1/3 of them. And the unbound delegates are usually people who work in the party, who tend to hate Trump. Since Trump has been getting only about 1/3 of the popular vote, and the popular vote tends to support him more than the "insiders" do, it seems unlikely he'll get that much of the unbound delegates.
"It is the common fate of the indolent to see their rights become a prey to the active. The condition upon which God hath given liberty to man is eternal vigilance; which condition if he break, servitude is at once the consequence of his crime and the punishment of his guilt."
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